If you’re a Tyson Fury fan, you’re probably not going to digest this piece very well. In fact, it probably won’t stay down at all. But know this. I’m a boxing fan. Just like you. And would love nothing more than to see a spectacular battle unfold in Klitschko vs Fury next weekend.
I’m not even fussed about whose hand gets raised when it’s all said and done. Win or lose, I would like to see Fury perform well. For mine, yours, and boxing’s sake.
But this is my take on the fight: Tyson Fury’s chances of beating Wladimir Klitschko are slim and none.
If you’re a diehard Fury fan and have already heard enough, then please, do at least check out the staggering statistics waiting on the other side of the link below. If you can read them without coming to the same conclusion I have, then hey, perhaps you know something I’ve totally overlooked.
So why am I writing off Tyson Fury (24-0, 18 KO) to such an extent? First of all, it’s not because I dislike the man. I actually think he’s entertaining, a real character. In boxing, especially in the Heavyweight division right now, his outlandish statements and zaniness are plenty welcome, if you ask me.
The reason I’m not backing him in any shape or form is because of more objective reasons; the numbers, solid facts, information we all have to hand. And of course, my opinions of Fury and Klitschko’s skill sets and past performances in the ring.
OK, let me play devil’s advocate for a moment, just to prove I’m no ‘Fury hater’. Physically speaking, Fury has a few notable advantages going for him. The guy is 13 years Klitschko’s junior, stands 3 inches taller, and carries a 4 inch longer wingspan. Fury could also outweigh Klitschko by over 20lbs on fight night – though that doesn’t necessarily belong in the plus column.
All of that doesn’t sway my opinion much when weighing up Fury’s chances, however. The distance between Klitschko (64-3, 53 KO) and Fury in terms of quality is as wide as a crater. If we begin by looking at Fury’s pro career, his best opponents have been Christian Hammer, Steve Cunningham, Kevin Johnson, and Derek Chisora (twice).
All these fighters came to win, and, for the most part, put on a good show. But are they world-beaters? Serious contenders? Anywhere above fringe-level? I’d say not. The cream of the crop here is probably Steve Cunningham, a capable fighter, but one who is arguably a blown-up Cruiserweight.
Now, is Fury, the man who was knocked down hard by Cunningham, ready to take on Klitschko, the man who’s knocked out/handily decisioned all challengers since 2006? Maybe Fury would have a good shot if he’d gained more experience against some decent European tests. Maybe an ex-world champion. But after beating the likes of Derek Chisora? Nah.
While Fury has been facing the softer touches of the division, Klitschko has been taking on far tougher challenges, such as Alexander Povetkin, Kubrat Pulev and Bryant Jennings. And these aren’t the only tough tests Klitschko has vast experience against (see the stats link above).
Klitschko may be criticised as the ‘jab and grab’ guy nowadays, but Fury’s repertoire pales in comparison, both in offense and defense. And perhaps that’s owing to their Amateur backgrounds? Klitschko, who picked up numerous medals on the circuit, came out with a record of 134 wins, 6 defeats. Fury, on the other hand, left the unpaid ranks at just 31-4.
Now, I don’t want to throw every existing stat at you, so I’ll pick the most striking only.
In world title bouts, Klitschko carries 25 wins (19 knockouts), 2 defeats, has beaten 10 current/former world champions, and currently holds the WBA (Super), IBF, WBO & RING titles. Moving on to his November 28th opponent…
In world title bouts, Fury has no experience. No credentials to speak of whatsoever.
See what I’m getting at? I’m finding it terribly hard to work out how Fury, with no experience against decent European/World level opposition, has a chance at beating Klitschko. And let’s remember Klitschko isn’t just a good boxer-puncher. This dude’s known as ‘Dr Steelhammer’ for good reason.
Klitschko’s ramrod jab is one of the best in boxing, and when coupled with a devastating left-hook, right hand, and top-tier footwork, his extensive belt collection would seem safe for now.
I’ve said my bit. Now it’s your turn to let your opinions free in the comments below. Do you agree with my take on Tyson Fury? Semi-agree? Or just think I’m a cynical killjoy who’s ruining the build up to a fight you were really looking forward to?
All of your stats make sense and I agree with you, but at 39 years of age,will any of Klitschko’s timing be off enough to make it harder for him to do what he has done over the past several years? Almost all professional athletes are retired by 39 and they are not what they were five to ten years before, although with modern training methods and diets, who knows! To me, that is what makes it very interesting.
Hi Gary,
Even at 39, I think Klitschko has enough left in the tank to hand Fury a beating. Yes, there is an issue of age in this fight, but I’d happily call Klitschko the fitter, stronger athlete who enters the ring in finer condition.
You make some fantastic points. Only time will tell.
I believe Fury will win though. Fury has unshakeable belief and confidence. Also he doesnt fear losing. He doesnt see any shame in losing.
I believe at the least his bashful comments have played significantly on Klitschkos mind and I do see fear in the Klits eyes. Klitschko is in the sunset of his career. Regardless of anything he portrays to the public, he is and has been on the decline. Since the start of 2008, which is a couple months short of 10 years, Klitschko has had 15 fights.
NONE OF THOSE FIGHTERS HAVE BEEN AS YOUNG AS FURY AT THE TIME OF THE FIGHT AND ONLY TWO HAS BEEN UNDER 30 UNDER 30 at the time of fight. The list I made below shows age difference of Klits last 15 fights starting from 2008 till now
1)Sultan Ibragimov was 33; Klitscko was 32-one year in Klits favour.
2)Anthony Tyrone Thompson was 37, Klit was 32 – 5 years in Klits favour
3) Hasim Shariff Rahman was 36, Klit was 32 – 4 years in Klits favour
4) Ruslan Chagaev was 31, Klit was 33 – 2 years against Klit
5) Eddie Chambers was 28 and Klit was 34 – 6 years against Klit 6) Samuel Peter was 30, Klit was 34 – 4 year age gap against klit.
7) David Haye was 31, Klit was 35 – 4 years against Klit.
8) Jean-Marc Mormeck was 40, Klit was 36 – 4 years in Klits favour
9) Tony Thompson was 41, klit was 36 – 5 years in Klits favour 10)Mariusz Wach was 32, Klitschko was 26
11) Francesco Pianeta was 29, Klit was 36 – 7 years against Klit 12) Alexander Vladimirovich Povetkin was 34, Klit is 37 – 3 years against Klit.
13) Elise Leapai was 35, Klit was 38 – 3 years against Klit.
14) Kubrat Venkov Pulev was 34, Klit was 38
15) Bryant Antonio Jennings was 31, Klit was 39 – 8 year difference
As we can see the only two fighters that were under 30 were Francesco Pianeta and Eddie Chambers. Klit was a little young and the age difference at the time was only 6 and 7 years respectively. This is Klits youngest fighter since 2008, i havent looked before that at age differences because Klit was 32 himself and thats reasonably young. So the age gap wouldnt play a big part. This fight with fury sees Klit at his oldest and an age gap of 12 years, 4 months and 18 days. Thats the biggest gap by almost double since 2008.
Additionally Tyson Fury has a reach of 216 cm and is 6 foot 9. In the last 15 years he has not fought someone as tall or with a reach equal to Fury. I doubt he would have fought someone in his career with such reach or height, it is hard to verify because alot of his pre-2000 fights dont have too much of stats on the boxers. However definitely no one as tall as fury or with such a reach in the last 15 years!
As i said, you make some very good points but i think these are the points you missed. Whether the 12.5 year age difference, the fact that he is the olders he has been, or the fact that he has never fought such a tall fighter or a fighter with such a reach will make a difference i Dont know. I think Furys belief, his youth, his no fear of losing will give him the upper hand. I think Klitschko’s age and his fear of coming of his 10 year pedestal will be his ultimate downfall.
Hi Dan, thanks for getting in touch.
You make some good points about Fury, his confidence in particular. It belongs in the plus column. If it’s genuine, it could play a big factor in the fight. My only concern is that Fury might crumble after feeling Klitschko’s stiff jab and power shots, typically the left hook and right hand. We all know Klitschko hates the feeling of leather on his whiskers, so, if Fury’s strong self belief carries into the fight, the Brit will have a good chance of making Klitschko uncomfortable. As always, I hope the fight lives up to the expectations, mainly those Fury has created.
If Fury underperforms considerably, or is stopped early, it will hurt boxing just as Mayweather-Pacquiao did – UK Sky Sports subscribers will have to shell out for the fight, after all. However well Fury performs, he’s on a collision course with David Haye who’s just announced his comeback. (Maybe it’s a little premature to say that?) Haye faced a strong backlash from boxing fans following his 12 round shutout to Klitschko a few years back, but there is now heavy pressure on Fury to make sure he not only wins, but outshines his British rival.
For what it’s worth, I thought Haye, one of the Heavyweight division’s ‘little men’, fought well against Klitschko. Haye came nowhere close to winning, but was slippery, fast, and landed a few crunching shots which caught Klitschko’s attention. In terms of Klitschko challenger performances, Haye’s was one of the better in recent years. The pressure is now on both Klitschko and Fury, but with Fury having done all the talking, let’s just hope he does himself proud on fight night. ‘And still…’ or ‘And the new…’?
Yes, true the matchup will make for a very interesting fight. We could all agree that Klitschko’s major advantages in this fight is a) that he is more technically superior and b) that he has much more experience, and c) He definitely has more experience in the ‘big pressure fights as he has defended his title for so long.
With that being said I feel with Fury’s age and under the guidance of his coach Peter, he has improved dramatically in the last 3to 4 years. He is at that age where there are still significant improvements in his technique. This is just how Wlad became much more of a technical fighter and improved his game after his early career losses to Brewster, Sanders and purity.
With that being saidI think people underestimate Fury’s technical ability and speed. They are quick to label him as having fought nobody’s. His footwork in his last fight against Christian hammer was genius. He made it look easy, but it wasnt necessarily as easy at he made it look. The way he used his feet to get out of the corners, dance around hammer was fantastic. I believe he would have gotten significantly better since that and I think there will be a lot of suprises. His hand speed, even though lacking power was also tremendous.
I also think that YES, the diets these days, the advanced training regimes, the vitamins and the ‘vitamins’ will ensure that a boxer doesnt deteriorate as quick as they did in the late 30’s early 40’s as they did in years gone by. However, i still think there is a difference between looking good, being fit and being able to slug with the same intensity and absorb the same punishment as one did in their 20’s and one can do in their late 30’s, early 40’s. Klitschko played to his advantages very well in the last 10 years. after his losses to Sanders, Brewster and purity, he learned and practiced how to use distance and his reach very effectively. I think his jab shots were very effective against previous opponents as he had a reach advantage most of the time. By keeping upper body back and safe, he was able to break em down by sitting back, jabbing, softening them up and then coming in and smashing them. He won a lot of the early rounds like this against his other opponents and finsihed them off after this. I dont believe the same tactic will work against Fury. Fury with his hand speed, footwork and reach advantage will be able to keep Klitschkos jabs out, while being able to outscore him in those early rounds himself. I think Furys constant change of direction and jabbing will be unlike anything Wlad has faced. Nobody would have been able to pull it off like Fury could have due to reach advantage. I then think Wlad will have to take a few more chances between rounds 6 to 8 having realised he is being outboxed. Also he is going to be doing a lot of running around. I think between rounds 8 to 10 Fury will turn up the gas after he has softened Wlad up and Wlad will be running on tired legs by this point. Against Jennings Wlad was very flat footed. His technique and skill got him out of that, but its never a good sign for a fighter. Furys movement will expose Wlad’s flat feet.
I think Wlads best chance will be to do the unexpected and be aggressive in the first few rounds and to take Fury out early. I cant see him winning if he uses his usual stand back, jab jab.
and when i say stand back and jab technique that Wlad uses, i mean that although he is moving forward and bridging distance, his upper body always stays back in those early rounds. He is still able to appear like he is being the agressor early on but it is a passive agressive move. This is how he beat most of his opponents, including Jennings. Jennings tried to break down this tactic by Wlad too early and Wlad just picked him off very easily. Jennings tried to rush in and break through this wall. Fury wont make this mistake and his reach and height wont really allow him. This is why I say this is a very new fight for Klitschko because alot of the things he has done to win in the last 10 years will become unstuck. Fury is in the best position to Win for the following reasons:
1) He has had a better look at Wlad then any other fighter
2) He is fighting Wlad at Vlad’s oldest
3) He has a significant reach advantage.
4) Fury’s height advantage will increase Wlads reach disadvantage. Wlad sits at 206, fury at 216. thats 10 cm in a straight punch. At an upward angle you can add about 2 or 3 cm to that. Try this, stand against a wall with your arm outstetched and your fist clenched. Make sure elbow isnt bent. Raise your arm 8 to 10 cm. You will see that it no longer touches the wall. This is why Wlad will have a tougher time executing his usual tactics.