Santa Cruz vs Martinez is one of those bouts which seemed quite laughable when first announced, but is now starting to raise a few questions. My initial thoughts were: Leo Santa Cruz is too big, too rangy and versatile for Kiko Martinez. And that’s probably the general opinion among most fight fans right now. And really, who can blame them?
But does this encounter seem reminiscent of Lee Selby vs Fernando Montiel? Going into that fight, it looked like IBF Featherweight champ Selby, the physically bigger man, was going to wipe the floor with the smaller Montiel. But that didn’t happen. Selby won a Unanimous Decision that night, but Montiel gave the Brit plenty to think about. Montiel, a seasoned former Bantamweight titlist, knew how to negate Selby’s longer reach and get off some hard counters inside.
Now, I’m not saying Kiko Martinez has the smarts of Montiel. But Martinez, despite being a fairly predictable pressure fighter, has been around the sport some time, has faced some top-tier opposition, and always comes to fight. Martinez’s relentlessness has allowed him to get the better of technically superior opposition like Hozumi Hasegawa, Jhonatan Romero, Jason Booth, and Jeffrey Mathebula, becoming an IBF Junior Featherweight titlist during his 122 pound campaign. Not bad at all.
So, does Martinez have a shot against Santa Cruz? Well, I wouldn’t bet on an upset taking place here, but I think it would be unwise to count out Martinez. Standing two inches shorter than Santa Cruz – coupled with a three inch shorter reach – isn’t advantageous exactly, but these dimensions aren’t freakish. Given Martinez’s fortitude and resilience, I believe he’s going to last the full 12 stanzas, perhaps ask a few questions of Santa Cruz along the way, but ultimately lose convincingly on the cards.
Santa Cruz can bang a bit, but I don’t think he’ll be disposing of Martinez like hammer-fisted conquerors Carl Frampton and Scott Quigg did. Due to Martinez’s pressing, come-forward style, I guess there’s always a good chance he could taste defeat early, with a Santa Cruz counter being the fight-changing blow. Counters helped close the show for Frampton and Quigg against Martinez in dramatic style.
Santa Cruz coped plenty well with Abner Mares’ admirable pressure game plan last August, and I don’t think he’ll be upset by the smaller Martinez in this one. Santa Cruz, who will be putting his WBC Featherweight title on the line, holds an unbeaten record of 31 wins, 17 knockouts and 1 draw, and Martinez 35 wins, 26 knockouts and 6 defeats. Santa Cruz vs Martinez should be interesting.
Boxing Base Prediciton: Santa Cruz via Unanimous Decision
And what about chief support Julio Ceja vs Hugo Ruiz II? I’ve been avoiding that question every time I’ve been asked this week cos’ I really don’t know. It’s a genuine 50-50 fight given they both hit the deck and gave each other fits last August, so why not flip a coin here? I’m going to keep this short and just say, gun to my head, Ceja will do the business again in another fan-friendly but slightly more cautious sequel to retain the WBC Junior Featherweight strap.
Going in, both fighters possess plenty of TNT, with Ceja bringing 30 wins, 27 knockouts and 1 defeat to the ring, and Ruiz 35 wins, 31 knockouts, 3 defeats and 1 draw.
Boxing Base Prediciton: Ceja via 8th round KO/TKO
How do you see Santa Cruz vs Martinez and the highly anticipated Ceja vs Ruiz II playing out? Is a Santa Cruz victory a formality? And will it be repeat or revenge for Hugo Ruiz?
