Lomachenko vs Linares is this weekend’s most anticipated matchup, set to unfold in Madison Square Garden, airing on ESPN and Boxnation. Pound-for-Pound elite Vasyl Lomachenko is the betting favourite, looking to become a three-weight world champion. In the other corner, Jorge Linares, a gnarly, sharp veteran commanding the Lightweight scene. Linares currently holds the WBA and RING Lightweight belts, and Lomachenko the WBO strap a division south. Here’s a promo from Golden Boy Boxing:
Lomachenko vs Linares
Vasyl Lomachenko (10-1, 8 KO)
Lomachenko, 30, is the superior overall operator. He’s a special fighter who does special things. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean Lomachenko, BB’s No.1 Junior Lightweight and No.3 P4P, gets the win here (more on that later). He’s got sublime footwork and technical ability, and always looks incredibly comfortable in the ring, working out and toying with very good, world level fighters.
Lomachenko, who shot for a world title in just his second pro fight, has garnered a lot of attention and deserves the lofty praise. Thanks to a mind-blowing 396-1 amateur record, he possesses an off-the-charts ring IQ, allowing him to quickly decrypt fighters, seemingly with ease. Able to exploit weaknesses so thoroughly, Lomachenko can systematically break opponents down, with his last four retiring on their stools; Nicholas Walters and Guillermo Rigondeaux likely did so out of sheer humiliation.
Lomachenko’s pedigree and rare talent is on another level to most. That’s obvious. But it’s not simply the fact that he’s beaten a bunch of big names in such a short space of time that’s so impressive – it’s what he’s done to them. Lomachenko’s recent outings: Guillermo Rigondeaux (RTD 6), Miguel Marriaga (RTD 7), Jason Sosa (RTD 9), Nicholas Walters (RTD 7), Roman Martinez (KO 5).
Jorge Linares (44-3, 27 KO)
Linares, 32, has never been considered a true elite type of fighter. His three career defeats were all knockouts and he’s been in some close fights which have raised questions about how formidable he really is. But despite all that, I’m convinced that Linares is a very good, technically on-point, hard-cracking Lightweight, who’s deservedly riding BB’s No.1 Lightweight spot. He’s always in fantastic shape, highly focused, and is never in a dull fight.
If anyone is overlooking Linares as a legitimate threat versus Lomachenko, they really are underestimating what this guy can do. No, Linares doesn’t have the skill level of Lomachenko – who does? – but he’s got real pedigree, is a hard-nosed, determined fighter with speed, one-punch power, and deft combinations on his side. He’s no joke.
Linares has been on a thirteen-fight winning streak since October 2012, and, although this isn’t usually the case with fighters, he actually seems to be getting better, like he’s more in his prime than he’s ever been. That said, I think he’s now beginning to peak. Of course, with Linares being the more natural Lightweight, he’ll be slightly bigger than his opponent on Saturday night. He’ll stand an inch taller (5’ 8” vs 5’ 7”) with a 3.5” reach advantage (69” vs 65.5”). Could mean something. Could mean nothing.
You could also say that Linares’ greater experience at Lightweight (15 fights vs 0) is an advantage. It’s not necessarily a highly significant factor in the fight, but I’d have to agree with that one. Lastly – though we’re now getting into subjective areas – I believe that Linares is the stronger, more powerful puncher. Again, it could all mean nothing, especially if Lomachenko is able to effectively nullify those attributes. As for handspeed, they’re about the same; the only difference being that Lomachenko’s creative offense and angles allows him the benefit of unpredictability. And, as the old adage goes, the punches you don’t see coming…
Linares’ recent outings: Mercito Gesta (UD 12), Luke Campbell (UD 12), Anthony Crolla (UD 12), Anthony Crolla (UD 12), Ivan Cano (KO 4)
Prediction
The stakes are high for both fighters as they approach challenges neither has faced before. You’ve got Lomachenko, arguably the best Pound-for-Pound fighter on the planet. Then you’ve got Linares, a technical boxer-banger with great experience. Lomachenko will be the smaller guy for the first time in his career. But Linares is also in deep, taking on a phenomenal talent known for making very good fighters look futile. So, a big risk-big reward fight, with the winner’s profile to experience some significant swelling.
I went with my gut last weekend, calling Tony Bellew to beat David Haye, and it’s going to be my gut calling this one, too. I’m going with Lomachenko to come out on top, either by dominating decision or a late round knockout/retirement, depending on how much repeated punishment Linares is willing to take. Once again, I’m not overlooking Linares. The guy can fight. He can punch, he can box, he’s usually dangerous. Hell, he could win.
But I have strong doubts about how dangerous Lomachenko will allow Linares to actually be. If I had to bet on Linares, I’d go exclusively by knockout within the first five rounds. Beyond that stage of the fight, however, I see the action seesawing drastically into a fully-adapted Lomachenko’s favour, with only one outcome looming.
Again, if you’re still routing for Linares, I hear you. Upsets happen. And it’s true that sometimes great fighters bite off more than they can chew when moving up in weight. It happened to Roman Gonzalez (twice) when he met Srisaket Sor Rungvisai and Guillermo Rigondeaux when he faced Lomachenko. Whatever happens, let’s hope it’s a good scrap on Saturday night.
Prediction: Lomachenko by dominating decision or TKO/RTD 10
Spill your own predictions for Lomachenko vs Linares in the comments, folks. Will size be in an issue for Lomachenko in this fight? Or is there only one outcome, with Lomachenko’s elite tool set ready to trump Linares all night long?
