Anthony Joshua puts his WBO, WBA, IBF titles on the line in this weekend’s Heavyweight headliner, with Alexander Povetkin playing challenger. The matchup is splitting fan opinion, with some respecting the threat of Povetkin, a squat, dangerous top contender, while others merely expect a one-way beatdown from the champ. However you subscribe, this looks like a solid night of action overall thanks to a promising undercard.
Joshua vs Povetkin
The Fighters
Joshua (21-0, 20 KO) is the betting favorite here. He’s bigger, has the edge in pedigree and versatility, and just seems like the more rounded fighter. With all that rocket-fuelled career momentum, five title defenses and a career-defining KO of Wladimir Klitschko, you cannot doubt who the A-side is.
One issue threatening to derail the AJ train, according to some, is that the British superstar may be overlooking Russia’s Povetkin (34-1, 24 KO). Personally, I don’t see that at all. Joshua is too mindful about his business to underestimate this aggressive, spirited puncher, and even appears to have shed some bulk in training, perhaps to help out-manoeuvre Povetkin’s bullish assaults.
Aged 39, Povetkin is eleven years older than Joshua, standing at 6’ 2” with a 75” wingspan, giving away 4 inches in height and 7 in reach. He’s also yet to beat what you’d call a genuine world-beater, plus he’s got three times as many miles on the clock as Joshua (224 rounds versus 77). These are facts too loud to tune out.
Another talking point is that the European-level David Price managed to rock and almost drop Povetkin last March. And there’s also all that ugly business with Povetkin failing doping tests that severed meetings with Deontay Wilder and Bermanine Stiverne. It’s a lot in the minus column for Povetkin.
So why ‘could’ it be a very bad idea to write off the Russian? Well, there’s no getting around what the paper tells us, and all those cynics may well be absolutely right about Povetkin being merely a gap-filler till WBC champ Deontay Wilder shows up. But a fighter’s record can only reveal so much.
Povetkin: More Than Meets the Eye?
In the ring, Povetkin remains strong, wily, and possesses fight-ending power, along with that gnarly, warrior spirit, even when things aren’t going his way. He’s a former titlist and, like Joshua, a Gold Olympian (Athens 2004). Povetkin’s best wins include those over Ruslan Chagaev (UD 12), Marco Huck (MD 12), Manuel Charr (KO 7), Carlos Takam (TKO 10) and Marisz Wach (TKO 12), among a few other solid contender/fringe-level foes, plus a couple of shopworn veterans.
Not much gold, granted, but when you consider today’s Heavyweight front-runners – and even the records of its champions – Povetkin’s slate isn’t too far behind the likes of, well, anyone. The only problem: Povetkin is missing that one ‘career-defining victory’ over a truly legitimate, recognized name.
The closest thing he has is a lopsided – yet notably gutsy – points defeat to Wladimir Klitschko back in 2013. However, while going the distance with a future Hall-of-Famer like Wladimir is a victory in itself, it remains true that Povetkin couldn’t effectively deal with the height, range and mobility of ‘Dr Steelhammer’.
So, naturally the cynics are going to say: Povetkin couldn’t handle a 6’ 6”, 37-year-old Klitschko, so how can he possibly handle a 6’ 6”, 28-year-old Joshua? The naysayers have a good point there. Despite Povetkin’s ranking – No.3 in BB’s Heavyweight Top 10 – he really does seem out of his depth in that regard.
With all that said, I still consider Povetkin to be a live threat tonight. While there’s nothing overly fancy about Povetkin’s footwork, he does know how to cut the distance quickly and unleash that ferocious left hook and overhand right, making the most of his compact, stocky frame. And there’s knockout power behind those shots.
Throw in that tenacious, do-or-die work ethic and it becomes hard to simply write Povetkin off as some unworthy no-hoper. Right now, I’d say he represents one of Joshua’s Top 5 toughest tests to date. Based on Povetkin’s experience and recent outings, I’d put him in the Top 4, behind Klitschko and hanging somewhere around the level of Joseph Parker and Dillian Whyte (maybe a bit better or worse than those guys).
As for the age factor, I’m not entirely convinced that Povetkin is over the hill, or in any serious decline. In fact, before people started attacking his ‘absurd’ 39 years of existence, I hadn’t much thought about it. Heavyweights tend to have more good years in the game than their smaller counterparts, and this seems to be true with Povetkin. If age really is a problem, however, a fight of this nature is more than likely going to highlight it.
Joshua vs Povetkin: The Verdict
Nobody was clamouring for this fight, but who can reasonably – and I mean ‘reasonably’ – kick up a fuss about Joshua facing a top-ranked contender? Maybe the fight’s over quickly, maybe there’s some unexpected drama, but whatever happens I’m fine with the initial matchmaking.
We have to remember that, once Wilder negotiations had broken down, there was hardly any other marketable options left for Joshua. With Wilder and Tyson Fury in talks for their December clash, they were out of the picture, as were Joseph Parker and Dillian Whyte (both Joshua victims before they fought in August).
Luis Ortiz was available but, despite Joshua-Ortiz sounding exciting enough, the combination of being 39-years-old and having been dramatically stopped by Wilder (in March) would’ve no doubt still angered boxing’s harshest critics. That only leaves Dominic Breazeale (another Joshua victim) in the Heavyweight Top 10, followed by Jarrell Miller and Adam Kownacki (two unbeaten, green prospects). So really there was only ever Povetkin in town.
As far as Joshua vs Povetkin predictions, I’ve got to back the bigger, rangier man, Joshua. He’s yet to take his eye off the ball, and it’s highly doubtful he’s about to now, especially when a legacy-defining fight looms (perhaps in April 2019). Appearing leaner than we’re used to seeing, I expect a trimmer, just-out-of-range Joshua to give Povetkin problems, ones that keep building round by round.
If Povetkin can’t break the distance barrier, it’s going to be a hard, hard night for the Russian, and it will probably be game over by the mid-to-late rounds. Should he manage to hang tough, slip inside and make things gnarly, shaking Joshua’s rhythm, he may find success in spots. But I just can’t see him doing enough to spring 2018’s biggest upset.
Prediction: Anthony Joshua by KO 8
How do you see Joshua vs Povetkin playing out tonight? Is this a bonafide walk in the park for AJ? Or does the planet’s No.1 consensus Heavyweight need to be poised and dialled in for what could be a tougher than expected clash?
