Some people are backing Gennady Golovkin in this weekend’s encounter with David Lemieux at Madison Square Garden, New York. Some are backing fellow TNT-fisted David Lemieux. And some say there are too many questions going into the fight to really know for sure.
How will Golovkin react when he is hit by a bona fide puncher and fully-fledged Middleweight? Has Lemieux bitten off more than he can chew against what looks to be one of the world’s best seek-and-destroy fighters – not to mention Pound-for-Pound?
These are just a couple of questions on boxing fans’ minds right now. But I want to get stuck into the facts, what we know about both men, and ultimately, what we can expect when the bell rings to commence Golovkin-Lemieux. In my humble opinion, that is.
Before I begin, I must recommend that you check out my recent Golovkin-Lemieux Tale of the Tape, Facts & Stats. I’m not going to let any spoilers rip – let’s just say there are some surprising numbers lurking in there.
Golovkin-Lemieux: The Fighters
Gennady Golovkin (33-0, 30 KO)
Strengths
If you’ve been following the career of Golovkin, I’m probably about to tell you exactly what you already know. ‘GGG’ isn’t a slick, slippery, dancing-type – he’s a straight-up stalk-and-smash fighter. And by smash, I mean punish, knockdown, knockout, destroy. Yes, Golovkin enters the ring meaning to do serious damage to his opponents, and he’s darn good at ensuring they don’t see the final bell – and more than often, not even the 6th round.
When you think of Golovkin’s savage history in the ring, it’s sometimes easy to forget that he’s not only freakishly strong, but is also a refined boxer. Any fighter who can dispatch of top contenders/ex-champions within a few rounds is special, without doubt. Golovkin is able to dominate his opponents in such a way due to possessing a number of vital skills: great timing, economical punching, and the ability to shrink the ring.
The Kazakhstan-born boxer-puncher kind of reminds me of the Flyweight division’s own pressure-house Roman Gonzalez. They’re two fighters who are rarely seen taking a backwards step, which is testament to their vicious, calculating mindsets in the ring. I would have to say supreme confidence is a ‘GGG’ strength; apart from when he had to work a little harder to blast out Martin Murray inside the distance, he always looks remarkably comfortable.
Lastly, in terms of best punches in his arsenal, they’re all money-maker shots. They all thud home, and are capable of shaking, wobbling, dropping, and knocking the other guy out. Golovkin’s ram-rod jab is scary, man. And those body punches – just sickening.
Weaknesses
It was hard to think of any when I had to write a similar article for the Golovkin-Monroe Jr fight a while back, and things haven’t changed. Yes, you could say Golovkin was tagged with too many flurries from Monroe, but could Golovkin have avoided those shots if he wanted? Probably. Or likely a lot of them. And Golovkin has even since said that he ‘lifted his chin’ to make it more of a fight, which I actually believe.
Anyway, Golovkin weakness? Well…there isn’t really anything of note. Eyes too brown? Could overconfidence (from all the hype surrounding him) be one? You can’t even say the guy may have trouble going the distance – he looked as formidable in the 11th round as he did in the 1st against Martin Murray. So I just don’t know. Hopefully we will get an idea of one or two of them when he soon takes on Lemieux.
Catch HBO’s Golovkin-Monroe Jr Highlights below:
David Lemieux (34-2, 31 KO)
Strengths
Like Golovkin, Lemieux is very powerful. And I could have used a few more ‘verys’ there. He has vaunted power, and most of his fights have ended inside the distance and in brutal fashion. Does he hit harder than Golovkin? That’s too difficult to analyze and argue either way, so let’s just say they can both bang brains around skulls pretty effectively.
What should be looked at more closely is how their power shots are delivered, and which do the most damage. Lemieux puts poison on every punch – of course – and so he’s always a dangerous man in the ring. But it’s his trademark left-hook and right-cross that are his bread and butter. If you missed Lemieux’s early career, you can see these punches hitting the mark time and again in fights against the likes of Gabriel Rosado and Hassan N’dam.
Rosado struggled with Lemieux’s constant pressure in his December 2014 fight, being wobbled and dropped by the left-hook several times, and eventually being hammered by a number of right-crosses. N’Dam gave Lemieux some problems with his fleet-footedness in June, but was dropped four times by a lightning left-hook before the final bell rang.
Lemieux has a decent 12-round tank which we, again, witnessed in the N’Dam fight. Perhaps he faded a little towards the end – ah, let’s not nitpick here. Lemieux may have two defeats on his record, including a knockout at the hands of Marco Antonio Rubio in 2011, but he’s rebuilt since, and is mentally strong. Lemieux had to be to come back from two consecutive defeats, of course, and he certainly seems sure of himself ahead of the war that awaits.
Weaknesses
I haven’t noticed any shortcomings in Golovkin’s game per se, but many analysts would have spotted what I’m about tell you about Lemieux’s. As I tounched on lightly above, it’s not about power in this fight, it’s about how that power is delivered. One of the major things that stands out to me between Golovkin and Lemieux is how long it takes for their power shots to actually ‘pay off’. (Or, how many shots they have to throw before the target is found/wounded.) Against top opponents, Lemieux seems to have to work that extra bit harder to nail them – in other words, he is less economical than Golovkin.
Not necessarily a bad thing (as long as it pays off), but it does mean his energy expenditure is greater than Golovkin’s in any given round. (I’m not going to start throwing punch stats and science at you – it’s just an obversation.) Against Golovkin, someone who deceptively waits for concussive-counter opportunities, this could be considered a weakness. Lemieux also has a tendency to ‘square himself up’ in front of opponents – not something recommended against ‘GGG’.
Lemieux is prone to eating a lot more punches than ‘GGG’, which of course points to greater flaws in his overall defense. Nuf’ said.
Finally, this last point isn’t a sure-fire weakness, but must come into play on some level: Lemieux has been defeated twice (as mentioned above). The setbacks occured a long time ago, and Lemieux may have rebuilt well, but a loss is a loss. Lemieux knows he ‘can’ be both be outboxed (Joachim Alcine, 2011) and knocked out (Marco Antonio Rubio, 2011). Whereas ol’ Golovkin is yet to be shaken, let alone knocked down in a fight – maybe Saturday will bring about the first?
Catch HBO’s Lemieux-Rosado Highlights below:
Golovkin-Lemieux: Prediction
Tale of the Fight
Man, I don’t like the job of having to make a prediction here. Especially for a fight that can change from one single punch, be won by a single punch, and end in any round.
Here goes…
Despite both men carrying explosive fight-ending power, I really feel this fight is about timing, boxing smarts and poise. Which belongs to Golovkin in greater abundance. Lemieux will make the most of his opportunity to capture glory, applying great pressure on Golovkin – probably pushing him onto the backfoot for the first time in his career – during the first two-to-three rounds. Golovkin weathers the storm, however, which saw him get through his own registering blows.
It is shortly after this point that Lemieux is knocked down for the first time off a counter-shot (I’ve no idea what shot in particular – just anything with venom on it) in the 3rd or 4th round. Whether Lemieux can beat the count or not doesn’t really matter. Up or down, the most painful night of his career will shortly be over.
This prediction might not satisfy those boxing fans anticipating a whole lot more in Golovkin-Lemieux, but it’s how I envision it, folks. Hey, I still believe this is going to be a hell of a fight, however short-lived it might be.
Boxing Base Predicition: Golovkin via 4th round KO/TKO
Do you agree with this prediction? If not, fire away with your own – I’d be thrilled to know how you see this fight playing out. Golovkin-Lemieux will air live on HBO PPV and Boxnation this weekend, October 17th.
