With the Cotto vs Geale weigh-in now over, who will be leaving the Barclays Center, California, with the WBC Middleweight title? On paper, this fight looks like a mismatch. And yeah, it could well be. But Daniel Geale deserves a fair shake, and when examined, the Australian could well pose a few problems for reigning champion Miguel Cotto.
Briefly, let’s recap on what both fighters have been up to in recent years.
Cotto vs Geale: Recent Fights & Strengths
Miguel Cotto
After back-to-back defeats to Floyd Mayweather and Austin Trout in 2012, Cotto thrust himself back into the Middleweight mix with two wins, the most notable being that over Sergio Martinez. It’s true, Martinez was not at his best – to say the least – but this isn’t the time to dig up the past.
Cotto dethroned Martinez, capturing the WBC and RING titles, and new trainer Freddie Roach (present for those return bouts) deserves partial credit for firing up Cotto’s aggression of old.
Those familiar with the long career of Cotto won’t need reminding of the Puerto Rican’s strengths and fighting style. Compact, with a high guard, Cotto is a stocky boxer-puncher who prefers to fight close-mid range. It’s a style that proves highly effective for the 5′ 7″ fighter. Body shots and a powerful lead left-hand are Cotto’s bread and butter.
As Cotto prefers to fight inside, he can of course get picked off from time to time by ‘outside’ fighters who control distance well. A couple of examples are the aforementioned Mayweather – no surprises – and Trout. Is this a weakness a 5′ 10″ boxer like Geale could exploit?
Daniel Geale
Geale lost his IBF Middleweight title to Darren Barker back in 2013, but showcased eye-catching boxing skills and an iron-forged will to win in that fight. To be fair, so did Barker (who was swiftly stopped by Felix Sturm in his first defense soon after). Following a successful tune-up against Garth Wood (6th round Retirement), Geale went into the lions den with Gennady Golovkin.
Geale came out mangled, of course, but bounced back with a shutout points win over fringe-contender Jarrod Fletcher.
Geale’s fighting style is quite the opposite of Cotto’s. To start with, Geale is not known for packing serious firepower. That said, he can bang – and with enough accuracy to ward off opposition. Yes, Geale is more boxer than destroyer. But he uses underrated distance control and a high work-rate to often overwhelm and tire his opposition.
He’s also a ballsy operator who is seldom seen retreating – as witnessed when facing Golovkin. Against an aggressive, solid fighter like Cotto, Geale will be in for a hard night’s work, indeed. Likely the toughest – bar Golovkin – of his career.
Cotto vs Geale: Keys to Victory
Miguel Cotto
- Take the fight straight to Geale while he’s cold – don’t let him build momentum and confidence on this big stage
- Cut the ring off – Geale is highly athletic and will look to circle the ring, especially against a powerful fighter like Cotto
- Work the body! – take the gas out of Geale to slow him down and create opportunities (this could pay dividends if the fight goes beyond the mid-way point)
Daniel Geale
- Take advantage of the height and reach differential here (71″ – 67″) – keep Cotto at bay and maintain position on the outside
- Jab, jab, jab! – cloud Cotto’s vision as he looks to break down the distance and get his shots off
- Don’t trade with Cotto – the Puerto Rican has fight-ending power (this is a pivotal fight that requires strict discipline to pull of the win!)
Cotto vs Geale: Prediction
Story of the Fight
It’s hard to call. It all depends on how much momentum Cotto allows Geale to build. If Cotto catches him early, it’s a short night for fight fans. If Geale can survive the opening 3-4 rounds, he could go a long way, perhaps even see the final bell. Then you have to take into consideration Geale’s struggles to make weight, and his gaunt appearance on the scales.
But, we have to be objective and make a prediction – so here it is:
Geale proves popular opinion wrong and puts his decent footwork to good use. In the early-mid rounds he catches Cotto with good jabs and short-combinations, but little to stop the Cotto train from steaming forward. After the mid-point, however, Cotto begins to find his man more and often, and eventually scores a stoppage victory in the later rounds. We believe around the 7-9 mark.
BoxingBase.com Prediction
Cotto wins via 8th round TKO to retain his WBC, RING Middleweight titles
You’ve heard our prediction, but how about yours? Let us know how you see the fight in the comments!
The BoxingBase.com writing staff provide worldwide boxing news, coverage and analysis – they can be contacted via email and social media.
