Calling this fight is going to be extremely tough. One day I’m backing Miguel Cotto, the next Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez. And right now, I’m not even sure how I’m going to call it. So while I make my mind up, let’s take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters prior to their November 21st clash.
Cotto vs Alvarez: Strengths & Weaknesses
Miguel Cotto
Strengths
Cotto has many strengths. The Puerto Rican future Hall of Famer has a lot more than just ‘bang’ in his impressive repertoire. For such a short, stocky fighter, Cotto has remarkable speed, explosive single-shot knockout power, excellent ring IQ, and well-schooled footwork.
Watch HBO’s Cotto vs Geale Highlights:
Though Cotto hasn’t fought any bonafide threats under the tutelage of Freddie Roach (in their three-fight partnership), I’d have to say Roach is a strength. The renowned trainer seems to have reignited Cotto’s ‘killer instinct’ which some critics felt had begun the wane.
Of course, we mustn’t forget that Cotto has a wealth of pro game experience which has involved many arena-filling world title bouts. Cotto knows how to keep his cool and perform on the big stage.
Weaknesses
Cotto may not look his 35 years in the ring, but the man’s still 10 years older than Alvarez. So I’d have to file that fact under weaknesses. That’s a big age gap, and could begin to show if this fight goes beyond the 6 round mark.
While Cotto’s crouching, explosive style is perfect for his short, stocky frame, it can also be viewed as much a weakness as strength. Alvarez is notably taller and rangier (I’ll touch on the specifics in a moment below), which would be advantageous for the Mexican if he chooses to fight behind his jab on the outside.
Cotto’s punch resistance may have weakened a little following his torrid 2008 affair with Antonio Margarito, a hard, punishing fight. Mayweather was even able to shake Cotto to his boots in 2012. But again, since Cotto hasn’t faced any serious punchers since, we’ll just have to see how he copes with Alvarez’s power on Saturday.
Canelo Alvarez
Strengths
Alvarez’s strengths are plain to see, and generally, the guy continues to develop, showing us something new each time he steps in the ring. And that’s hardly surprising since Alvarez is still a kid (in boxing terms) at just 25-years-old. Alvarez’s age, not to mention excellent head-body combination attacks, are what makes him such a lethal and exciting talent.
See HBO’s Alvarez vs Kirkland Highlights:
Like Cotto, Alvarez has also been known to end fights from a barrage of sense-derailing punches, or single blow. Alvarez’s counter-right to the chin of James Kirkland is one of the most sickeningly beautiful shots you’ll ever see in combat sports, period.
While Alvarez isn’t a tall Junior Middleweight (155-pounder/whatever he is nowadays), he’s of fairly decent height at 5’ 9” (2” taller than Cotto), and also carries a 70.5” reach (3.5” longer). While maybe not a strength against everyone, these are certainly strengths against Cotto.
And finally, put in the simplest way, Alvarez is one bad ass SOB! Cotto’s emotions may be veiled by a poker face, but Alvarez’s vicious intentions couldn’t be clearer when he fights, especially after getting tagged.
Weaknesses
With Canelo, it’s generally hard to highlight significant weaknesses. Mainly because he hasn’t fought an opponent who is both cerebral and powerful. Yes, Alvarez has beaten some decent punchers (Alfredo Angulo, James Kirkland) and boxers (Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara), but no one like a Miguel Cotto. Yet.
With Cotto, we know how he fares under serious pressure from top-tier opposition, but with Alvarez, we’re yet to find out. Some Alvarez weaknesses could perhaps be defensive flaws, which a KO chaser like Cotto could exploit.
Alvarez also looks like a fighter who is a little heavy on his feet. Perhaps it’s because he’s naturally a big guy (often rehydrating to 170 lbs), or because he simply prefers to stand and trade? Perhaps Alvarez may have to adapt his style when Cotto begins unloading with full-blooded shots?
Cotto vs Alvarez: Prediction
Now for the part I was dreading due to my conflicted opinions. For starters, here’s what the pessimistic part of me won’t stop yelling:
The whole thing’s a smokescreen! This fight is built on misdirection and clever marketing. Alvarez is going to wipe the floor with this aging veteran. Cotto may have stopped his last three opponents, but you don’t need a magnifying glass to reveal they were sub-par foes at best.
Delvin Rodriguez was fringe-level at best, Sergio Martinez was suffering from serious knee afflictions, and Daniel Geale was just a bloated KO victim in waiting. Against Canelo, a young, hungry boxer-puncher, we’ll see that Cotto hasn’t turned back the clock or been ‘rebuilt’ at all. Cotto will look his 35 years, and be chopped down by Alvarez before the 6th round arrives.
OK, I feel better after getting that out. Now for my actual prediction…
Tale of the Fight
Luckily I don’t believe all of what my ‘killjoy side’ does above. But there are a few valid points in there, I think. Cotto vs Alvarez will be competitive, worth the wait, and will have us all talking about this Mexican-Puerto Rican showdown throughout the week to come.
Alvarez will be up against the sternest test of his career (bar Mayweather), and Cotto one of the toughest for some time. For that reason, anything could happen, but I’ve got to stay objective here. In a fight which Cotto holds his own and lands his fair share of blows, I see the younger, fresher Alvarez coming out on top.
Given their aggressive styles, I have to pick Alvarez via knockout, which I envision arriving around the 9th round. Why so long for Cotto to fall? Because Cotto still has the legs, reactions and IQ to make it that far and keep Alvarez guessing. I even see Cotto outmanoeuvring his younger foe in places, thanks to superior footwork.
But you know what? All I’m wishing for in Cotto vs Alvarez is a fantastic night of boxing. And I truly hope boxing fans get it.
BB Official Prediction: Alvarez via KO/TKO 9
Do you agree with my prediction, fight fans? See the fight going completely differently? Have your say on the outcome of Cotto vs Alvarez in the comments! I’d also recommend checking out our must-read Cotto vs Alvarez Tale of the Tape, Facts & Stats – it might just surprise you.
